2024-25 Season in Review: Erik Karlsson

Erik Karlsson once again drove the Penguins blue line offense in his second season with the team.

Vitals

Player: Erik Karlsson
Born: May 31, 1990 (Age 34 season)
Height: 6’ 0”
Weight: 186 pounds
Hometown: Landsbro, Sweden
Shoots: Right
Draft: 2008 first round (15th overall) by the Ottawa Senators
Acquired: Trade between the Pittsburgh Penguins and San Jose Sharks on August 6, 2023.
2024-25 Statistics: 82 games played, 11 goals, 42 assists = 53 points
Contract Status: Karlsson has two years remaining on an eight-year contract he signed with the Sharks back in 2019. His original cap hit is $11.5 million, but he costs the Penguins $10 million against the cap after San Jose retains $1.5 million per season. The deal comes with a full no movement clause.
History: 2023-24 (45% B, 36% C)

Monthly Splits

via Yahoo!

Story of the Season

Erik Karlsson came to Pittsburgh with dreams of playing for a Stanley Cup alongside the like of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. He came to Pittsburgh in the summer of 2023 as the first major trade of the Kyle Dubas era and he was seen a major piece in helping get the Penguins back to the playoffs.

It’s safe to say now that those plans have not exactly worked out, but it’s hardly the fault of Karlsson. In his second season with the Penguins, Karlsson posted a nearly carbon copy of his first season, at least when you look at the box car numbers. He went over 50 points for the second season running and was back in double digits in goals.

When comparing to other defensemen around the league, Karlsson still ranks up with some of the best in offensive output. His 53 points in 2024-25 far and away led all Penguins defensemen and was good enough for 12th in the entire NHL.

There are certainly complaints about his defensive play, and those are warranted, but he brings a level of play to the Penguins offense that cannot be replicated by anyone else on the roster. If he’s not in Pittsburgh next year, there will need to be a conscious effort to replace some of what will be lost.

Regular season 5v5 advanced stats

Data via Natural Stat Trick. Ranking is out of 11 defensemen on the team who qualified by playing a minimum of 150 minutes.

Corsi For%: 51.5% (4th)
Goals For%: 48.4% (3rd)
xGF%: 51.0% (4th)
Scoring Chance %: 51.0% (3rd)
High Danger Scoring Chance%: 49.3% (5th)
5v5 on-ice shooting%: 9.8% (2nd)
On-ice save%: .895% (9th)
Goals/60: 0.31 (1st)
Assist/60: 0.97 (2nd)
Points/60: 1.28 (2nd)

Karlsson was without question the Penguins best defenseman this past season, especially on the offensive end which is to be expected given his style of play. He still drives offense and scores at a high rate which does a lot to help soften the blow of his defensive liabilities.

Charts n’at

Via Advanced Hockey Stats and NHL Edge

It’s all gas, no brakes when it comes to Karlsson on the ice. Still a terrific driver of offense but nothing when it comes to his own end. That’s been the case for much of his career but his defensive game have really been non-existent in Pittsburgh. His numbers may have slipped but he still produces at an elite rate for an NHL blue liner.

As mentioned above, Karlsson’s game is offense first and that shines through when looking at the analytics. His power play prowess was a huge part of that unit’s success this season but there is almost no drop off when it comes to his 5v5 play.

Karlsson is fast, can score, drive offense, and eats minutes. Fans may complain about the defensive lapses, but it’s hard to imagine where the 2024-25 Penguins end up in the standings if Karlsson was not on the team.

What helps Karlsson still standout even as he approaches his mid-30’s is his skating ability. He doesn’t have the flashy top end speed but he’s a consistently fast skater when he’s on the ice. That ability allows him to move fluidly around the ice and control the puck and get into the offensive zone to create chances.

Karlsson is one of the few Penguin players that can shoot the puck hard! His wrist shot can be deadly accurate, but his ability to wind up and let it rip is a skill not many players on the roster possess. Makes his role on the power play all that more valuable.

Highlights

Questions to ponder

Have we seen the last of Erik Karlsson in a Penguins uniform?

Many wondered if Karlsson was going to be dealt at the NHL trade deadline in March, but the reality is that Karlsson was always much more likely to be dealt in the offseason than during the season because of how complicated a deal like that can be to pull off.

All signs seem to be pointing towards Karlsson being moved out at some point this offseason, especially when there was some smoke around dealing him at the deadline. For one, he’s not getting any younger, and two, he wants to play for a Stanley Cup which the Penguins are not expected to compete for anytime soon.

Ideal 2025-26

Should Karlsson remain with the Penguins in 2025-26, another offensive season similar to what he has posted in his two seasons with the team should be the low end expectation. Anyone hoping for stronger play on the defensive end hasn’t spent much time watching Karlsson throughout his career, and his best defense is his ability to shine in the offensive zone.

A revamped powerplay in 2024-25 was a big reason why Karlsson had the success he did, but he’s still good 5-on-5 and can create havoc there. He’s not going to repeat his 100 points season two from years ago, but anything in the realm of what he did this last season should suffice if he returns to Pittsburgh.

Bottom line

One thing Karlsson has given the Penguins during his stint in Pittsburgh is offense and durability. He’s played in 82 games each season and posted 109 points in that same span. He was by far and away the team’s best defenseman in 2024-25, and if they move on from him, will need to find away to replace what he brings on the offensive end of the ice.

Karlsson can be an enigma amongst the fan base because his defensive miscues can be glaring and his offense may not fully make up for the misgiving anymore. Either way, if he is on the trading block this offseason, there will be more than one team calling Kyle Dubas for his services because the offensive talent is still undeniable.