It not only ended up being a bounce back year for Rickard Rakell, it also turned out to be a career season.
Vitals
Player: Rickard Rakell
Born: May 5, 1993 (age 32)
Height: 6’1
Weight: 191 pounds
Hometown: Sundbyberg, Sweden
Shoots: Right
Draft: First-round pick (No. 30 overall) in 2011 by the Anaheim Ducks
2024-25 Statistics: 81 games. 35 goals, 35 assists, 70 total points
Contract Status: Three years remaining at $5 million per season against the salary cap
Monthly Splits
This was a remarkably consistent season for Rakell. Other than a down month in November, he was close to a point-per-game in almost every month, especially once the calendar rolled over to December.
Story of the Season
This is what the Penguins were hoping for when they initially acquired Rakell from the Anaheim Ducks back in the 2021-22 season. A bonafide, top-six winger that can play on the top line and impact the game all over the ice offensively.
There is finishing ability, playmaking ability, creativity and just solid all-around play.
It was also a great bounce back season for Rakell following a very down 2023-24 season where it looked like his contract might turn into an albatross and a long-term drain on the salary cap.
He not only bounced back, he ended up having one of the best seasons of his career with a personal-best 35 goals and 70 total points.
For as forgettable as the 2023-24 season ended up being for him, the remainder of his Penguins career has been a pretty big success. He has always had great chemistry with Sidney Crosby, and that duo played a big role in carrying the Penguins offense this season.
Regular season 5v5 advanced stats
Data via Natural Stat Trick. Ranking is out of 17 forwards on the team who qualified by playing a minimum of 150 minutes.
Corsi For%: 52.6 (3rd)
Goals For%: 62.1 (2nd)
xGF%: 52.3 (4th)
Scoring Chance%: 50.2 (8th)
High Danger Scoring Chance%: 53.1 (4th)
5v5 on-ice shooting%: 10.5 (4th)
On-ice save%: .884 (16th)
Goals/60: 1.10 (2nd)
Assists/60: 1.05 (5th)
Points/60: 2.15 (3rd)
Not only were Rakell’s traditional box score numbers among the best on the Penguins this season, his advanced numbers and analytics were also among the best across the board.
Highlights
Questions to ponder
The biggest question regarding Rakell is a simple one: Will he even be on the Penguins next season?
He was the subject of trade rumors leading up to the deadline, and is going to be one of the most attractive trade chips the team has. His contract, combined with his production this season, could make him a highly sought after player this offseason across the league, especially as teams find out how much goal-scoring costs on the open market with a rising salary cap.
The other question: Can he come close to duplicating this performance again?
It would be asking a lot for a player in their mid-30s to duplicate a career year, so there is almost certainly going to be some regression. But even if he is not a 35-goal, 70-point scorer again he should still be capable of finishing in the 20-25 goal, 55-60 point range. And that would still be very, very useful at his salary.
Ideal 2025-26
The ideal season for Rakell would be him getting the start on Crosby’s line and making a push at another 30-goal season. That could do one of two things for the Penguins. The first is that it would give them a good player that they know plays well alongside Crosby and — in theory — could still be a productive member of the team in a couple of years when they hope to be good again.
It could also continue to boost his trade value, giving Kyle Dubas a significant trade chip to keep adding young assets and players to help further the rebuild.
Bottom line
The decision to trade Rakell comes down to a couple of factors.
What kind of offers do they get is one of them.
How quickly do they anticipate returning to the playoffs is the other.
If they hope to be in the playoffs again within a year or two, Rakell should be good enough to still be a part of that. That might inspire the Penguins to keep him, especially to help Crosby throughout the remainder of his contract.
If they are thinking more long-term, it might make more sense to move him now for a significant return.
The bottom line for right now is he is probably their second-or third-best player behind Crosby and is definitely their most valuable trade chip.