Key dates for the Penguins in the early part of the off-season
The playoffs are firing up elsewhere but the rink has gone dark after another season has ended in Pittsburgh. The lack of games doesn’t mean a lack of activity, here are some key items and dates to watch in this early part of the off-season.
The biggest dates in the NHL’s summer will be later on. The draft is on June 27-28 and free agency opens up on July 1st. Those marquee events contain most of the excitement and headlines but here’s what to look out for before that point.
Step 1: Any (unplanned) staffing changes?
The Penguins plan on retaining their coaching staff, according to general manager Kyle Dubas at his end of season press conference. That’s a reversal from last season when the team moved on from assistant Todd Reirden and replaced him with David Quinn.
Will the early summer have any surprises as far as unplanned changes? Sorry New York, we don’t mean Sullivan, who said he intends to stay in Pittsburgh. This is more about Quinn and the Pens’ other feature assistant, Mike Vellucci.
Vellucci, perhaps quietly, tends to appear on lists as a fairly strong candidate for a head coaching positions. He’s been added to Team USA’s coaching staff as an assistant for the World Championships next month.
Vellucci has interviewed for jobs on more than one occasion in recent years. At 58 years old the clock is ticking for him in an industry where jobs are skewing younger. Vellucci has been a successful head coach in the OHL, he’s won a Calder Cup as a HC in the AHL, and now he’s been at the side of one of the NHL’s most respected coaches for five seasons in Pittsburgh.
There are currently three HC vacancies and three more teams under interim coaches. Could this (finally) be Vellucci’s year? We’ll find out in the weeks and months to come. You never know until it happens but Vellucci might be on a track to at least put himself in consideration for a promotion somewhere else, which would cause a ripple effect to the Pens moving forward.
Step 2: Lottery draft
The exact date hasn’t been firmed up yet but reportedly is either on May 5th or 6th, according to TSN.
The Penguins will need Craig Patrick’s lucky four-leaf clover for what will be the first draft lottery that they’ve had a shot at winning the first overall pick since 2006. Pittsburgh only has a 5.0% chance of winning the first overall pick (and a 5.2% chance of winning the second overall pick). There’s a much better chance of 23.5% that Pittsburgh gets leaped by another team and sends the Pens to a 10th overall selection, but the odds on favorite is for Pittsburgh to hang tight at the 9th draft selection with a 64.4% probability.
Step 3: Wait to hear from New York about the extra first round pick
According to Dubas after the trade deadline, the Rangers have up until 48 hours before the draft to let Pittsburgh know if New York will elect to keep their first round pick this year or send it to the Pens. If NYR keeps the pick this time around then Pittsburgh gets the Rangers’ 2026 first rounder next season with no protection.
Don’t expect any news on the matter soon, the Rangers surely will wait to see what happens in the draft lottery for the 3.0% chance that they win the first overall pick. Probably won’t happen but they have to see what pick they end up with before making a decision on what to do with it. There is a 79.9% chance the pick is 11th overall and a 13.4% chance of dropping down to 12th. Would that make difference? Who knows.
Considering the Rangers made this pick top-13 protected in their trade to Vancouver, logically they positioned themselves to have the ability to an 11th overall this year and would have to take their chances on what happens next season. That still has to be fully decided and communicated, there’s nothing for the Pens to do but sit back and wait and see what happens.
Step 4: Ongoing playoffs doesn’t mean a trade freeze
Major trade dominoes fell within the goalie market last summer during the Stanley Cup Final. Calgary sent Jacob Markstrom to New Jersey, Washington traded Darcy Kuemper to Los Angeles and Boston sent Linus Ullmark to Ottawa all before the final whistle of the 2023-24 season. Not a netminder but Ryan McDonagh was dealt back to Tampa in May, and there was another meaningful trade of draft picks worked out between Chicago and the Islanders in the same month.
Since the draft and free agency are crammed up to each other just days apart teams naturally need to get their ducks in a row prior to those big events. These next few weeks and months will be an opportunity for the Pens to scan the league, have conversations and find if there are any opportunities to shuffle the deck. Does any other team have a $3-5 million problem contract or two with a few years on it that can be flipped for Ryan Graves and/or Tristan Jarry? Now is as good a time as any to start planting seeds on what can be done and try to have a transaction completed before the draft.
There’s no reason to sit by social media or this website and expect a major trade to break at any given minute in the next two months, but ideally the leg work is getting done to see if there are any matches.