It’s down to Carolina and Florida
Continuing our uneven prognosticating, we put up a 1-1 record in the second round from the Eastern Conference. Should have stuck with Carolina, the only team from my bracket challenge that was correctly predicted before the playoffs started to end up in the final four, but that went by the wayside.
Carolina and Florida are the last two teams standing in the East. Both were dominant with the puck in the second round, each taking a 61% Corsi share against their respective opponents. The Hurricanes defeated the Capitals in five games, an easier fashion than the Panthers who had to go seven games with the Maple Leafs, reflected in Carolina’s dominating 10-4 edge in 5v5 goals against Washington.
Both of these teams are used to holding the puck and creating chances at the other end, Carolina had a 56.8% xGF% in round two, Florida surpassed that with a commanding 59.2% xGF% of their own. The story of this round will come down to which team can enforce their will on the other more often.
The Hurricanes haven’t been tested very much yet, they’ve the NHL equivalent of a MMA cage fighter that wrestles their opponent to the mat, rolls around and controls the fight the whole time until inevitably earning a submission victory. Does it make for the most visually appealing way to play? Not to many, but at the same time the effectiveness can’t be doubted and that’s really all that matters at this stage.
Florida is a team you really have to hand it to. As pointed out on the TNT broadcast, the Panthers have played 303 games over the last three seasons between regular seasons and playoffs. They’ll set the record with a long series here. Trades to freshen the team up are a big part of the story where newcomers Brad Marchant and Seth Jones were two of the most visible and effective players on the ice in the series against Toronto. For as much as drafting can build a championship team, so too can big time adds at key times and seemingly every button that GM Bill Zito and coach Paul Maurice push is the right one at the right time.
The Hurricanes will be hoping that Frederik Andersen (7-2 record, 1.36 GAA, .937save%) can keep up the good work in net. Sergei Bobrovsky’s stats are more pedestrian (8-2, 2.31 GAA, .901 save%) but with two shutouts this spring he’s showing that he’s in top form as well.
As always, starts to games and scoring the first goal will be incredibly important at this time of year. In the last round, Carolina only conceded one goal in the first period over the five games against Washington (and just two more in all second periods!). They’ve been incredibly stingy defensively and backed up well by Andersen. Overall, the Hurricanes are 3-0 this postseason when leading after 20 minutes and 5-0 when ahead after two periods.
The Panthers are no slouch in that department themselves, with a 4-0 record when winning after the first period and 7-0 when up after 40 minutes. Overall, FLA is 26-0 since the start of the 2022 playoffs when they have a lead after two periods.
Balance is the name of the game at this stage for both clubs as well. Florida boasts eight forwards with eight or more points (in 12 games) so far, paced by Marchand and Eetu Luostarinen’s 12 points. Carolina has six players with six or more points in their ten games, with Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis leading the way with 10 a piece. There’s no McDavid/Draisaitl extreme standouts of individual dominant performances in the East this year, it’s more a matter of balance and great depth shining through.
The Panthers’ third line (Luostarinen and Marchand centered by Anton Lundell) is playing as well as any trio in the league right now. The Hurricanes’ third line of the two Jordan’s (Martinook and Staal) with William Carrier is nearly as effective.
In the end, this could be anyone’s guess for how the series will play out. Two extremely talented teams that are locked in and playing very well. Florida won two out of three from Carolina in the regular seasons, but all the games were over by early January, not much to gleam from there. One or the other could come out and prove to be a quick series, or this matchup might go the distance. It’s difficult to pick against either one, since both are capable of representing the East in the Stanley Cup Final. Let’s go ahead and bet that the Florida run of dominance in the East reaches a third straight appearance after a hard-fought six games.