Kicking off our profiles of the top young players in this year’s draft, the presumptive No. 1 overall pick Matthew Schaefer
The NHL Entry draft hasn’t been as important as it is now in Pittsburgh in the last 20 years. The Penguins haven’t picked in the top 10 via their own draft choice since 2006, a span that will end next month when the Pens pick (likely either 9th or 10th overall) pending the results of Monday’s lottery draft. Pittsburgh did trade for a top-10 pick on draft night in 2012, but we didn’t have time to plan and prepare for that. This time, we do.
Pensburgh may do a lot of things, but scouting young players across multiple continents is not one of them to rank with much accuracy, so we will turn to the venerable Bob McKenzie from TSN for his listing of players. McKenzie’s list is typically in-tune with the NHL, because his rankings are an average that comes from surveying 10 active NHL scouts. As such, the list is set as follows for players we will look to profile in the coming weeks to spread some awareness and knowledge for Pittsburgh NHL fans to get to know some of the top prospects.
No. 1: Matthew Schaefer, 6’2” 183 pounds, LD, Erie Otters (OHL)
Almost everything about Schaefer stands out as impressive, even some of the variables that he can’t control. By happening to have a September 7th birth date, Schaefer is one of the youngest prospects in this draft (had he been born just a few days later after Sept 15, he wouldn’t be eligible until the 2026 draft).
Schaefer has risen to the top of the draft by most observers, including nine out of the 10 scouts in McKenzie’s sample. While not completely unanimous, he’s the clear top player available by a majority of people who track this. Here’s some rankings from various places compiled on his Elite Prospects page:
As to be expected by a presumptive No. 1 overall pick, it’s not terribly difficult to see why that is. Even at 17-years old, Schaefer already has the full package of a new age defenseman. His size/frame at 6’2” and about 180 pounds is ideal, his skating and edge work is sublime, his offensive instincts and ability are everything an NHL team dreams of having.
(Note: Schaefer wears No. 5 in Team Canada highlights and No. 48 in OHL Erie Otters highlights)
Schaefer was picked first overall in the 2023 OHL draft and as a 16-year old put up 16 points (3G+13A) in 56 games as an OHL rookie in 2023-24. He hit his groove last season, producing 22 points (7G+15A) in 17 games of an injury-shortened season due to a broken collarbone. He’s been a serial winner already in his young career with recent championships in the U-17, U-18 and Hlinka/Gretzky Cup titles, he’s captained three teams to gold already.
They said it
Here are some samples from various scouting websites to give an idea of what the experts are seeing in this player.
“Players that really control the game are rare,” said Button. “I see Schaefer as Drew Doughty-like. Doesn’t matter what the situation is, doesn’t matter who [they’re] up against, they control the game.
“The skating is superb. He’s competitive. He’s in the hard areas of the game.”
I see a few factors why he’s separated from the pack. First, he plays a premium position; it’s extremely difficult to find a top-pairing defenceman. Schaefer projects to have the ability to take games over singlehandedly from the back end. Next, his size. At 6-foot-2, 183 pounds, he’s already a big kid, but with plenty of room to pack weight and muscle on to his frame. If recent times are an indicator, teams have shifted back to drafting for size, especially on defence…
Lastly, this young man has experienced tragedy and adversity like few others his age. He lost his mother to cancer after moving away from home to continue chasing his dream in Erie. While there, he also lost his billet mom which, for CHL players, is akin to losing a third parent.
He’s also endured two injury setbacks from this season, so he’s had to overcome plenty. A bout of mono kept him out of the lineup for the start of the regular season, while most of the country witnessed his clavicle injury while representing Canada at the world juniors. Schaefer’s ability to navigate adversity is a trait that isn’t overlooked by NHL scouts.
His pure defensive zone play might need some work, but everything else is simply top notch. His pass vision is unmatched by other defenders this season. The way he can open up the ice handling the puck, skating laterally and whipping pucks around the ice makes him a huge threat all over the ice. The puck rushing ability that landed him his injury is still something to really behold when he jumps into the rush. He’s a bit of an unconventional defenseman projecting to the NHL and I’m not sure exactly who he reminds me of. He isn’t Cale Makar, but perhaps a John Carlson? Dan Boyle for all my fellow Millenials and Gen X’ers out there? Someone not shy to step up in the offensive zone, jump into the rush, and run offenses themselves that outpaces any defensive issues.
Schaefer was tremendous, when healthy, this season. The No. 1 pick in his OHL Draft, Schaefer was arguably the best player at the Hlinka Gretzky and the CHL/U.S. NTDP series. He was also Canada’s best player at the World Juniors up until he broke his clavicle. Schaefer missed time at the start of the season due to mono as well. His main asset is his skating. He’s a powerful, effortless skater who will be able to close gaps and transition up ice at a clear NHL level. He uses his feet to attack often, leading and supporting rushes very well. Schaefer is a very intelligent defenseman with legit offensive skills. He creates a lot of chances due to his skating, but he can also break down opponents one-on-one with his hands, and finds a lot of seams to make plays. He closes on checks at a high level due to his athleticism, but Schaefer is also a great competitor. He uses his size to make stops, gives a great effort every shift and projects to be able to stop top players in the NHL. He’s a great talent, who has already overcome tremendous personal adversity in his life. He projects as a star No. 1 defenseman in the NHL.
Schaefer has shown time and time again that he is a top-tier two-way defenceman who can do everything right. He can play a highly mobile, offensive style like Cale Makar, driving the play forward with elite skating and can either set up teammates with hard, accurate passes or fire the puck on net himself with strong, quick wrist shots. His speed and agility are two of the most developed parts of his game, making him a joy to watch whenever he gets the puck.
Without the puck, Schaefer is still dominant. He aggressively pressures the opposing puck carriers, forcing them to make mistakes and create turnovers. At 6-foot-2 and 183 pounds, he’s not the most physically intimidating player on the ice, but he doesn’t shy away from physicality and knows when to throw a bone-crushing hit at the right time. He is also a great shot-blocker and penalty-killer, allowing his coaches to trust him in every situation.
Schaefer may not be a generational talent like Connor Bedard or a unanimous first-overall choice like Macklin Celebrini, but his ability to affect every aspect of the game makes him one of the most dominant of his draft class. He does everything at a high level already, and any weaknesses one might find are more the result of his age – his birthday was just 11 days away from putting him in the 2026 Draft – and lack of strength, both of which will take time
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In the 5.0% chance the Penguins win the first overall pick, the choice between Schaefer and center Michael Misa will be a fascinating one to watch unfold. It’s a great choice, since there’s no wrong answer: the team that picks first will get to chose between a player that almost everyone thinks has a surefire shot at a bright future as a top-of-the-roster impact player, either at defense (Schaefer) or center (Misa). Can’t go wrong there.
The Pens have attempted to build their defense recently by spending high picks on Owen Pickering and Harrison Brunicke lately, but a player like Schaefer would instantly become the crown jewel in their system. Schaefer offers that superstar upside that is rare and coveted. It’s tough to compare anyone to Cale Makar, who scored 30 goals and over 90 points in the NHL this season, but Schaefer plays that style, or for handedness might be more of a blueline Hughes brother (Quinn or Luke). His size, skating and ability to control the game with the puck should make Schaefer one of the NHL’s better players in the future.