Taking a stab at the first round of the NHL draft
The day we’ve been waiting for is finally here. The Penguins enter a draft with two first round picks for the first time since 2012 and have two picks in the top-12 since 1984. (That draft worked out OK). How will it unfold tonight? Here’s our best stab at trying to predict the unpredictable.
- New York Islanders – Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL): No surprises here, the near-consensus top player is getting drafted first and going to Long Island.
- San Jose Sharks – Michael Misa, C, Saginaw (OHL): There’s been some late-breaking talk and rumors about Frondell being the surprise pick but Misa is the best forward in the draft and gives the Sharks another high-end piece to go with Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith.
- Chicago Blackhawks – Anton Frondell, C, Djurgarden (SWE-2): Frondell has become a popular choice for this pick. Chicago could decide to go pure center with Desnoyers but Frondell’s game translates better to the wing if it comes to that than the other options and his upside is a bit higher than the rest.
- Utah Mammoth – Caleb Desnoyers, C, Moncton (QMJHL): The Mammoth were lucky enough to win the lottery and move into this spot, they need to maximize it by taking a center since they might not be picking this high again for a while. They tend to prioritize compete level and Desnoyers has a nice mash of size, playmaking and effort to set him a little above what will be several good choices. Picks 1-2-3 of the draft look fairly straight forward, this Utah pick is the big fork in the road for how the rest of the top-10 could unfold.
- Nashville Predators – Porter Martone, RW, Brampton (OHL): Nashville could use a game-breaker and Martone offers the size and playmaking ability to be a perfect modern day power forward. Meanwhile in Pittsburgh, Kyle Dubas punches air as his dreams for Martone to drop so the Pens could trade up a few spots for him is erased.
- Philadelphia Flyers – Brady Martin, C, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL): Martin has the folksy background of coming off the farm that fits the old school Flyers MO. He plays bigger than he is and will remind GM Danny Briere of his former teammate and captain Mike Richards enough to make Martin the guy the Flyers want. Back in Pittsburgh, a double punch of air.
- Boston Bruins – Jake O’Brien, C, Brantford (OHL): The Bruins add a very creative playmaker and piece down the middle for their future. O’Brien looks to be a better fit or bet for them at this point than Hagens or McQueen, who also will be heavily considered.
- Seattle Kraken – Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL): The Kraken have yet to draft a first round defenseman in their brief history but first-year GM Jason Botterill changes that by taking the massive 6’6” right hand shot defenseman with a ton of upside.
- Buffalo Sabres – Roger McQueen, C, Brandon (WHL): The Sabres are surprised to see James Hagens on the board but they can’t bring themselves to add another smallish forward in the first round. Buffalo reportedly didn’t want to trade for Marco Rossi, so we’ll stick with that rationale to predict that they go to the other end of the spectrum and draft the massive 6’5” center with some bite in his game.
- Anaheim Ducks – James Hagens, C, Boston College (NCAA): Once presumed a top pick, Hagens falls to 10 after concerns for his fit, size and somewhat lukewarm draft year. This is probably the absolute lowest he could go, but indications are there that he could be slipping tonight. The Ducks are thrilled to snap Hagens up at this point and hope that the arrow is pointing up from here.
- Pittsburgh Penguins – Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL): The Pens want to be tougher to play against and Aitcheson fits the mold. They’ll take a chance that his athleticism and compete level will help carry him into being a solid player for them in the years to come, so they go ahead and knock out taking a defender with their first pick and then consider the next one.
- Pittsburgh Penguins (NYR pick via VAN) – Cole Reschny, C, Victoria (WHL) This is bold, but we project the Penguins make somewhat of a surprise pick. They were linked to more prospects than anyone at the combine for taking out to dinner, Reschny wasn’t one of them. That was the intentional misdirection to not show outward interest. Reschny is a player who has his arrow rising, he was great for Canada at this spring’s U-18 tournament (as was Harrison Brunicke last year). Corey Pronman said of Reschny, “he’s a highly skilled and intelligent player who can run a power play like a pro and makes a ton of creative stick handles and passes. He’s a quick skater with good edges who plays with pace and makes high-end plays on the move. He’s not the most dynamic skater for a guy his size, but he will be able to move at an NHL level”. NHL teams don’t solely draft for need, but the Penguins really need to get a potential top-six center in their system ASAP and Reschny offers that.
- Detroit Red Wings – Victor Eklund, RW, Djurgarden (SWE-2): Swedish player with a great drive and work ethic slotting into Detroit? This feels like such a natural fit.
- Columbus Blue Jackets – Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL): Columbus is pleased to add LD3 this late in the draft. Smith has the size and physical gifts to project as a potential top-4 defender.
- Vancouver Canucks – Carter Bear, LW, Everett (WHL): Knowing Jim Rutherford he’ll probably trade this pick, but what the heck. Bear is past a partially torn Achilles and a solid value here, scoring 40 goals in just 56 WHL games last season. Scoring touch is always a plus.
- Montreal Canadiens (from CGY) – Justin Carbonneau, RW, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL): The Habs add a goal scoring threat with their first of two picks.
- Montreal Canadiens – Jack Nesbitt, C, Windsor (OHL): Montreal will be looking to address the center position and the improving Nesbit gives them a ton of size to work with.
- Calgary Flames (from NJD) – Lynden Lakovic, LW, Moose Jaw (WHL): Lakovic has size and great skating ability, enough to take a chance on here over questions about his consistency.
- St. Louis Blues – Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL): Many are expecting the right shot puck moving defensemen to go in this range.
- Columbus Blue Jackets (from MIN) – Braeden Cootes, C, Seattle (WHL): A competitive center with more skill than he might be credited for (I think he’s a possibility for the Penguins higher up as a player profile they would like), CBJ jumps at adding a nice center prospect here.
- Ottawa Senators – William Horcoff, C, Michigan (NCAA): The son of former longtime NHLer Shawn Horcoff, son William is a tall drink of water at almost 6’5”. The Senators are looking to boost up down the middle and they do so with this pick.
- Philadelphia Flyers (from COL) – Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA): Hensler has size and teams are always looking for capable right shot defenders.
- Nashville Predators (from TB) – Cullen Potter, C, Arizona State (NCAA): The Preds take a chance on one of the fastest skaters and most dynamic offensive players in the draft.
- Los Angeles Kings – Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL): Already pro-sized at 6’4” and 220, the son of Vern Fiddler is active offensively and has a first round profile.
- Chicago Blackhawks (from TOR) – Daniil Prokhorov, RW, Dynamo St. Petersburg Jr. (RUS-JR): Compared to Val Nichushkin, the Blackhawks take a chance on a 6’5” Russian player that could be an impact player for them down the line.
- Nashville Predators (from VGK via SJ) – Benjamin Kindel, C, Calgary (WHL): Kindel put up 99 points in the WHL this season thanks in large part to a great playmaking style. He’s a good skater too.
- Washington Capitals – Milton Gastrin, C, MoDo Jr. (SWE-JR): A dependable three-zone player, the Caps add a pivot with good hockey IQ
- Winnipeg Jets – Malcolm Spence, LW, Erie (OHL): The Jets nab a forechecking demon that has a great shot to go along with a projectable frame that should be up to 210+ pounds down the road.
- Carolina Hurricanes – Ryker Lee, RW, Madison (USHL): Carolina usually tends to go for high-end forwards and Lee was a top player in the USHL last season. He’ll have to boost his skating but the hands are there.
- San Jose Sharks (from DAL) – Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL): The Sharks can’t pass up the opportunity to add the OHL teammate and partner of their 2024 first round pick Sam Dickinson. Good idea, Brzustewicz can defend well, skates well and jumps up in the play.
- Philadelphia Flyers (from EDM) – Cole McKinney, C, USA U-18 (NTDP): Addressing center seems to be a big priority for the Flyers, so we’ll give them another one here.
- Calgary Flames (from FLA) – Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston University (NCAA): The Flames add to their defensive depth to close out the round.
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For our mock draft official purposes for posterity, if the top-10 unfolds like it does above let’s go with Victor Eklund and Jackson Smith as the official Pensburgh endorsed selections for this year, since the above picks are less personal and more based on projecting what the team could/might be thinking.