Some not bad, some show how unpredictable the NHL season can be
Making NHL predictions is a lesson in humility when you circle back and look at them six months later when the season is over and the dust settles. Even the best models or individual predictions are considered a success when coming within an average of 10 points of how it plays out, so we all deserve a little grace in remembering that. With that disclaimer out of the way, it’s time to see what went as expected and what unfolded that wasn’t on anyone’s bingo card. (That’s a popular saying, but is bingo even that popular?)
2023-24 Pensburgh Atlantic Division season preview
2023-24 Pensburgh Metropolitan Division season preview
Florida was my biggest blindspot, which was apparent right from the start. They finished with 20 more points and four spots up from where I had them. Turns out they weathered their early defensive absences and Stanley Cup Final loser hangover just fine, and good Bobrovky showed back up this year (as he tends to in alternating seasons). Credit to them for all of that.
Detroit was also moderately above where I expected, like many I drank the Kool Aid that it was time for Buffalo and Ottawa to kick their rebuilds into gear. As we saw so painfully for them…it wasn’t to be this season. Due to poor goaltending, the Senators are one of the biggest disappointments in the league this season. Buffalo only finished seven points where I had them, which isn’t a huge miss, but they’re showing that gap between being an 85ish point team and a 90+ point team can be a very difficult one to take.
Otherwise, I’m proud of myself for not falling into the common trap of thinking Boston would drop off a cliff with the departure of two really good centers and remain solidly as a playoff team. They’ve got some Moneyball “replacing Jason Giambi in the aggregate” sleight of hand going on there (just rewatched that movie if you couldn’t tell). Similarly, I think many were too soft on Tampa creeping back to the pack, and they were again able to hold off all the rebuilders (DET/BUF/OTT) as I projected, which is a small but nice win to claim.
The two biggest stories in the Metropolitan Division were New Jersey (an awful -29 point underperformer for me) and Philadelphia (who smoked and mirrored their way to be +17 points better than projected).
In hindsight, NJ got bit by the goaltending position that should have thrown up warning flags, a young defense that wasn’t ready for prime time — and especially not when Dougie Hamilton got injured.
Otherwise, I’m not feeling too bad about this one. Carolina is old reliable, and one of the few predictable teams that operates consistently and as expected. Wasn’t difficult or a reach to project them up towards the top. Similarly, I gave the Islanders a little too much credit for wins, but they pulled enough games into OT to move up a few points.
The Rangers won the Presidents Trophy and ended up better than I called, showing once again the lift that amazing special teams can present to a team that is only OK at 5v5.
I was expecting the Penguins to have a close call at the playoff line, though they fell short by a few points of where they coulda/shoulda/woulda been if only a few areas big and small went differently.
I didn’t expect much out of the Capitals and their -31 goal differential didn’t let me down. But they turned a few losses into wins through good goaltending (Charlie Lindgren, who would have thought?) and some timely goal scoring and found a way into the playoffs.
My final score was:
- Five playoff teams right (CAR, NYR, TOR, BOS, TB)
- Five non-playoff teams right (CBJ, PHI, MTL, OTT, DET)
- Missed on getting the statuses of the other six (PIT, WSH, NJ, NYI, BUF, FLA).
Can’t complain about that too much, if I could have one mulligan it would be to flip BUF and FLA for a better prognostication, but whaddya gonna do?
I feel kinda good in general that I projected the Conference to have five solid teams, and then a huge mess in the 88-92ish point range that could have been anyone’s ball game. (It’s just that I had NJ and not FLA as one of those top teams). That overall projection came fairly close, the bar to get into the playoffs was not terribly strong this season.
The closing thoughts proved prescient, if the Pens did get a couple more points and into the dance like I thought, their first round matchup would have been either Carolina (in the M2 vs M3 spot) or the top team in the regular season, the Rangers (in M1 vs WC2). That would have made for an extremely uphill battle either way, which is part of the problem as a mid-level team. The margin of error is small and the path forward is difficult.