Crosby/Malkin vs. McDavid/Draisaitl: Examining Stanley Cup supporting casts

Have Connor and Leon gotten enough help?

In the aftermath of Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers failing once again to capture the elusive Stanley Cup, online discourse has popped up about the age old hockey debate of individual contribution to what is a team-based achievement. Great players are judged by how many Cups they win, but ironically those players are heavily dependent on everything from goaltending to management to coaching to support players to — did we mention goaltending — in order to make it to the top of the mountain.

Another interesting area is how the Oilers have been constructed around McDavid and fellow all-world forward Leon Draisaitl. The Oilers often resort to playing the duo together on a super-line, in part because it maximizes and unifies talent but also in part because if they don’t then players like the ancient (Corey Perry), the unwanted (waiver pickup Kasperi Kapanen) and the unable-to-stay-out-of-the-penalty box (Evander Kane) are thrust into key roles.

The old online trope for the past 10-15 years in Penguin-land has been the “wingers for Crosby” (or Malkin) type of plea for better help around the star centers. At times that’s been true, when the Penguin stars have had to lug Dominik Simon or Scott Wilson or Eric Fehr around as barely helpful components.

But is it different for Edmonton now? To even the playing field, let’s take a look at the past Penguin teams (and salary caps of the eras) and compare to what the Oilers are dealing with now.

The NHL salary cap for the specified seasons

• 2008-09: $56.7 million
• 2015-16: $71.4 million
• 2016-17: $73.0 million
• 2024-25: $88.0 million

The star salaries

Combined cap hits of Crosby/Malkin in the past to McDavid/Draisaitl now

• 2008-09: $12.5 million* or 22.0% of the cap total
• 2015-16: $18.2 million or 25.4%
• 2016-17: $18.2 million or 24.9%
• 2024-25: $21.0 million or 23.8%

(*Counting a $3.8 million AAV for Malkin due to entry level bonus money added to base salary)

This handy information squares up that Edmonton is paying about what the Pens paid for their two stars once salary cap inflation is taken into account. 2023-24 and 2024-25 were great opportunities for the Oil — Draisaitl’s $14 million a year contract extension kicks in next season which will raise the commitment to $26.5m for the two stars, even with the massive NHL cap increase to $95.5m that inches the total up to 27.7%. From there, McDavid is in “name your price” territory for a new contract in 2026-27 that could be $16, $17, $18 million per year if he wants to stretch it that high (though with the “team first” mentality embedded in hockey culture, perhaps McDavid will cut Edmonton a break with a cap hit more in-line with Draisaitl’s $14m).

No matter how that sorts out, the least Edmonton had to pay prime era McDavid/Draisaitl was is now in the past. It’s only going to go up in the immediate future once the new extensions kick in. Then three, four or five years down the line when the salary cap increases will help the percentages, the pure peak eras of the power of these players will likely be receding by then.

That said, considering that the two top stars left a huge chunk of the pie left for the Oilers to spend last year, it’s got to be a bit disappointing in the context that Florida found a way to add Brad Marchand and Seth Jones during this season while Edmonton (while stretching the LTIR limits of good faith even for the lenient NHL’s standards) could only muster mid-season adds of Kapanen, Trent Frederic and Jake Walman.

That led to this lineup in a due or die Game 6. (A lineup that got tossed out the window early when Florida grabbed a quick goal to unite 97/29).

It doesn’t help that Zach Hyman, a rare great add by EDM, was out injured all series, but deep into the playoffs injuries pile up. Jeff Skinner was a good gamble but had a terrible season. $4 million addition Viktor Arvidsson is another player who looked well past his expiration date and played his way into being a healthy scratch. Adam Henrique scored 27 points this season. Frederic presumably wasn’t 100% for the stretch run and didn’t look amazing in a one-goal playoff.

And that’s before getting to the goalie duo of doom that had to be constantly rotated to find any semblance of a player who could keep the puck out of the net on a short term basis.

This all isn’t to let McDavid and Draisaitl — who both more or less owned up to not playing well enough and crediting Florida for being better — off the hook. You’d always want your top players to be their biggest in June. They own some blame just like everyone else.

But just look at that graphic above and compare to the one below. Then let’s do an imaginary trade of Crosby/Malkin going back through the time machine (yeah yeah, it’s an impossible concept, we know) and exchange them in place with McDavid/Drasaitl.

HBK! Matt Cullen! Two really good goalies! It’s a lineup without any weaknesses, augmented around two generational star centers.

No tweets from back then, but here’s the Game 7 lines vs. Detroit. (Petr Sykora out with injury)

Chris Kunitz – Sidney Crosby – Bill Guerin
Ruslan Fedotenko – Evgeni Malkin – Max Talbot
Matt Cooke – Jordan Staal – Tyler Kennedy
Pascal Dupuis – Craig Adams – Miroslav Satan

Defensive Pairings:

Brooks Orpik / Sergei Gonchar
Hal Gill / Rob Scuderi
Mark Eaton / Kris Letang

Goaltenders:

Marc-André Fleury (starter)
Mathieu Garon (backup)

Give the modern day Oiler stars that third line and goalie and is there any doubts they’d be planning for a parade this weekend?

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The takeaways from this can be many. One could be appreciative that Ray Shero and Jim Rutherford did well to support the Pens with critical decisions that provided enough support to round out the team. One could be equally critical of recent Edmonton managers for the same. Another outlook is that one or two skaters — no matter how good they are — can’t win a Stanley Cup on their own. Hockey is one of the best team sports in the world because it does take everyone to win, as cliche as it sounds. Stars get their careers judged by how many times they’ve won, but they’re just as dependent on everyone else doing their job well as any other position in the game.

There are no easy answers, but the good news for the Oilers is that they get a new chance every year and they already have the difficult part down of having two of the game’s top current players on their squad. Now they just have to figure out how to get the best possible pieces around them so they can be the ones celebrating the next time they make it back to the Stanley Cup Final.