Some areas to keep an eye on as the early parts of the offseason happen
It’s going to be another long summer for the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have failed to make the playoffs for a second season in row. Here are some early off-season things to watch for as the team navigates another cycle of change and the standard NHL events. It might not be as wide open as last year, when at this time we didn’t even know who the main hockey operations leadership would be, but there should still be enough drama and intrigue along the way.
Before we reach the two biggest milestones and events of the offseason — the draft in June and free agency’s start on July 1 — there are still several key decisions to be made. We’ll focus on that for this Part 1 of the checklist.
Step 1: Any staffing changes?
This we know about Mike Sullivan: the GM says he wants him as the coach, ownership has done nothing but gush about him and hand him a big extension, and the key players have been solidly in their coach’s corner.
We also know that: he’s missed the playoff two years in a row for a team that’s desperately wanting to stay relevant in the final years of Sidney Crosby. Those recent results would usually be a ticket for a coaching change, but re-read the three items in the paragraph above to see why the Penguins continue to buck conventional wisdom when it comes to their stance with Sullivan. Unless one of those areas change, or Sullivan himself decides he wants to bail, it seems like he will remain the Penguin coach in 2024-25.
But, there are always the winds of change after expectations aren’t met. Assistant coaches Todd Reirden and Mike Vellucci both see their contracts run out, and the staff could probably use a freshening up on some levels (to say the least). Other staffers may come or go, any announcements on that could be forthcoming in the somewhat near future about who might be moving on.
Step 2: Lottery draft results
The lottery draft is still TBD for either May 7th or 8th. There are two options for the Penguins:
- They win the lottery. But a winning team can only move up 10 selections, so that would mean going from 14th to picking fourth. There is only a 3.2% chance of this happening.
- They lose the lottery, stay at pick 14 and at which case the selection is transferred to San Jose as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. There is a 96.8% chance of this scenario playing out.
The 2024 NHL draft is June 28-29 and will be held at the Sphere in Las Vegas, NV.
As of now, the Penguins have a conditional 1st or 2nd round pick that we’ll talk about more below, their own second, fourth, sixth, seventh rounders (and also NYR’s seventh rounder for good measure). Pittsburgh doesn’t have a third or fifth rounder due to previous trades. They will have two top-50 picks, which is more than normal, but no high-end picks.
Step 3: Moderately cheer for Carolina in the playoffs
The Penguins have a slightly vested interest in the 2024 playoffs, even though they are not involved.
If the Carolina Hurricanes win three rounds, Pittsburgh then takes Carolina’s first round pick (which would be 31st or 32nd overall, pending whether the Canes lost or won the Stanley Cup). If Carolina is eliminated within the first three rounds, the Pens get a second round pick (44th overall).
A difference of 12 or 13 slots isn’t that big of a deal with how the NHL draft tends to play out with value, but it’s something to track at least. Many will be rooting for Carolina based off the Jake Guentzel and Jordan Staal connection, and that’s only enhanced since the Penguins could actually benefit if the ‘Canes go on a run this spring. Carolina is the current betting favorite to win the Stanley Cup at +550 going into the playoffs.
Step 4: Buyouts and early trades
Kyle Dubas is on record saying he strongly wishes to avoid having to go the buyout route and incur the added penalties that come with it, so this likely will be a period that clicks by with no activity by the Pens. Pittsburgh already has a Jeff Petry salary retention via trade and Jack Johnson buyout penalty for dead space for 2024-25 on the books.
But Dubas may seek to make trades in the active period around the NHL draft to shuffle salary and players around.
Step 5: Make a decision at goalie…again
We used this same task last summer, and now against all odds and luck it somehow is back. Tristan Jarry wasn’t used as a starter in the last 13 games of the season. He still has four years on his contract that carries the 10th highest current cap hit for active goalies who aren’t unofficially retired.
Alex Nedeljkovic was the main netminder down the stretch but is set to hit unrestricted free agency. Nedeljkovic was above passable, but consistency has been an issue and the last time he signed a lucrative contract he ended up playing his way down to the AHL before it ended.
What happens to either goalie? It looks up in the air at this point, but a plan needs to be made (if not acted upon) in the very near future. Rookie Joel Blomqvist had a great season in the AHL and could also factor into the NHL equation moving forward.