Staring down elimination, the Edmonton Oilers goaltending woes have reared their ugly head at the worst possible time as they face Game 6, down three-games-to-two, on the road, against the Florida Panthers in the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Final. Edmonton needs its goalies to improve now. We saw last season that winning consecutive games against these Florida Panthers is doable, even if it’s challenging. The Edmonton Oilers stormed back from 3-0 down to force a Game 7. Now, they have to do the same, but from a smaller deficit. It’s a 3-2 series this time, and Edmonton needs one of their goalies to answer the call.
For Game 6, Just Who Will Get the Start in Goal for the Edmonton Oilers?
Throughout this playoff run, both have had their moments. Both have shown flashes of why the Oilers had confidence in their crease. That isn’t enough anymore. Edmonton needs their goaltenders to show up with the series on the line. There’s no more time to wait. With the Oilers now staring down elimination, they need their best performance of the season. It has to start where the leak has been, and that’s in the blue paint. The Oilers goaltending has to be better.
The Starter
This postseason has shown the full range of Stuart Skinner. In the first two games against the Los Angeles Kings, he looked overwhelmed. He looked like the NHL postseason was too much for him. With the struggles he’s undergone, Skinner lost his starting job in that series. The Oilers went on to win six straight before he was returned to the crease. When he went back in goal, Skinner looked like a new player entirely.
He looked calm. He was sensational against the Vegas Golden Knights in round two, with consecutive shutouts to win the series. There was a great stat at one point in his postseason, where Skinner had a 4-2 record with four shutouts. If he won, the opponent didn’t score. That’s how dialed in he was when he returned to the crease. He was so good that when the Oilers started conceding goals again, it didn’t affect him. He was still performing at the top of his game.
Since that phase has passed, Skinner has slowly regressed to the goalie we remember. If he gets back to where he was, the Oilers goaltending woes fade quickly. He’s good, but he’s not quite capable of getting the Oilers over the line. That’s fine because he isn’t the only goaltender the Oilers have, but that’s still problematic moving forward. If Skinner is going to be the one the organization has faith in, he’s got to get to that next level when it matters most. However, he’s not the only option the Oilers have had.
The Backup
Calvin Pickard came into this postseason as the number two. He was good down the stretch, but he was expected to play second fiddle to Skinner. When Skinner got hooked against Los Angeles, Kris Knoblauch turned to Pickard, who answered with a sensational run of his own. Game 5 against Florida was Pickard’s first loss this postseason. Pickard has a 7-1 record, despite his save percentage not being the best. He’s come up big for the Oilers when they’ve needed him. He’s been a reason for the Oilers’ goaltending success to this point.
After he beat the Los Angeles Kings, he got injured. The Golden Knights series saw the return of Skinner to the crease, and Pickard was sidelined. He only got back into the net in Game 4 after Skinner got pulled again. He got the start for Game 5 and dropped his first decision of the postseason. Losing his first game in the Stanley Cup Final is both impressive and annoying to Oiler fans. He wasn’t the reason for the defeat, but that great run could have taken the Oilers to glory. But it’s over, and now the Oilers need someone to take them to greatness.
Improved Oilers Goaltending is Essential
We’re into the final stretch of the season. At most, there are two games left in the season. The Oilers goaltending needs to improve to ensure it’s a two-game series. According to MoneyPuck, Skinner has a goals-saved above expected (GSAx) of effectively zero. In other words, he has been replacement-level. Pickard’s GSAx is -2.0, so he’s been worse. Edmonton needs one of their goaltenders to steal a game. They need their goaltenders to be better. Replacement-level goaltending doesn’t win the Stanley Cup.
If we turn to NaturalStatTrick, we can look at the average goal distance. This stat is how far from the goal players scoring on the Oilers have been this postseason. For Skinner, it’s 18.76 feet. That suggests a lot of rebounds, and he’s not great when shooters are in close. That’s backed up by his .780 high-danger save percentage (HDSV%). While this is partly on the Oilers’ defence, Skinner needs to bail his team out now and again. For Pickard, it’s 24.60. He’s being beaten from range. His high-danger save percentage is a respectable .804%. That’s not awful. He has to be better with shots from further out.
If neither goaltender improves, it could be the second-straight season the Oilers taste defeat at the hands of the Panthers. If Edmonton is going to force this series back to Alberta, they need their goaltenders. Yes, they will need their star forwards to shine. But if the forwards have to score five to keep them in the game, that task isn’t feasible. Edmonton’s future lies in the hands of these two. Both have overcome such adversity to get this shot at the Stanley Cup, but it could all be in vain. The fourth win is always the hardest in a series, and the Oilers will try to make that the case for Game Six.
Main Photo Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images
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