First round pick possibilities for the Penguins

Who could the Pens pick? Who should they pick?

Now that we’re getting deep into our profiles of the 2025 NHL draft and have learned more, a topic about who the Penguins could or should pick fits the bill. The intrigue is maximized, since conceivably the Rangers could send the 12th pick in the draft to Pittsburgh to satisfy conditional terms of a trade. That would give the Pens a two-pick combo at 11th and 12th overall to add two quality prospects to the fold, doubling the interest of the players available in this range.

For starters, right off the bat we’re going to scratch these players under the belief they will be long gone by pick 11.

No 1: Matthew Schaefer
No 2: Michael Misa
No. 3: Porter Martone
No. 4: Anton Frondell
No. 5: James Hagens
No. 6: Caleb Desnoyers
No. 7: Jake O’Brien

It would be great if someone like O’Brien slipped down to when the Pens were on the clock, but it isn’t realistic enough to count on.

That leaves this list, of which three players will still be selected from 8-10 before the Pens get their turn.

No. 8: Roger McQueen
No. 9: Victor Eklund
No. 10: Jackson Smith
No. 11: Radim Mrtka
No. 12: Brady Martin
No. 13: Carter Bear
No. 14: Kashawn Aitcheson

If you were taking bets, Mrtka is a very good name to consider getting picked in this range of 8-10. Mobile, 6’6” right shot defensemen are high-end commodities on draft day. Similarly, if McQueen passes medical checks and is cleared from his back injury then he will will be off the board in the top-10 as well. At this point, however, teams buying into the risk remains a big “if”. To round out the list of players picked just before Pittsburgh gets up, Martin has been rising up the charts in the pre-draft process. There’s no guarantee he’s a top-10 pick on draft night but at this point it sounds like a decent assumption.

If those hold, that sets the Pens up to choose between: Victor Eklund, Jackson Smith and Kashawn Aitcheson as the conventional wisdom, consensus top-ranked players on the board. What’s best for the Pens?

A mystery fall

While we’re assuming that Mrtka, McQueen and Martin go off the board 8-10, that isn’t certain to happen. It’s possible some team sees Jackson Smith and thinks “that’s the next Thomas Harley” and drafts him high, or maybe a top-10 team falls in love with Eklund and the top-10 unfolds more closely to Bob McKenzie’s consensus rankings above. This could be a best case scenario for the draft to unfold for Pittsburgh should it develop into a situation where they get to select and one or some of Mrtka/McQueen/Martin are still available.

Of course, it McQueen is available at No. 11, it might be because the medical experts are advising teams to steer clear due to his back. But, hey, a 6’5” right-handed skilled center with back problems? If any franchise was willing to see how the good could outshine the bad there, it would have to be the Penguins. McQueen probably has more boom/bust than anyone at the top of the draft for the range of outcomes in his career. If he heals the back issue could become a minor footnote in his story as he goes on to be a top NHL player. Or the back issue could be a dominant factor in a short playing career. Whose to say at this point?

Dubas and the Pens diner with Brayden Yager prior to the 2023 draft and ended up taking him (even though reportedly Kyle Dubas wasn’t in attendance for the dinner meeting). The combine is a time to get to know players and teams have to perform as much due diligence as they can. Another possibility is that Pittsburgh might consider trading up a few spots to eight or nine by using a second round pick to get in a better position to make sure a player they really like doesn’t have to fall to 11.

Victor Eklund

If the aim for a top pick is to draft a player with the highest ceiling, Eklund could satisfy that for the Pens. NHL teams might not be smitten enough to draft a 160 pound winger in the top-10 but that could be an opening for Pittsburgh at 11. Eklund has a high ceiling and could be a great piece of the puzzle. Undersized players routinely fall in the draft, but for every smaller player that gets ranked highly like a Zach Benson or Seth Jarvis that hit there are also the Brendan Brisson or Jacob Perreault that get drafted at 170ish pounds that don’t end up as success stories.

Kashawn Aitcheson and Jackson Smith

If there’s a run on centers in the top-10 that could make a defenseman a very viable option for Pittsburgh at 11. Kyle Dubas has been hands on at scouting the OHL this year and Aitcheson stands out for his goals and physicality. On the other side, the Pens have gone out West for several of their recent high picks (Harrison Brunicke, Tanner Howe, Owen Pickering) which could be a trend they go back to if Smith is their guy. Ultimately the choice will come down to how each player is judged for their ceiling and perceived possibility of reaching it to determine which blueliner could be the favorite.

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There’s less than three weeks from the draft to figure out how the pieces will fall but at this point the common names are coming into focus. The scouting and discussions will be in full throttle for all the teams as they start to decide how to setup their draft boards and a team like the Pens will be in a position where what happens ahead of them likely dictates which specific direction that they will end up going to find who they think the best remaining option will be.