The Pens are on track to select at No. 11 or higher in the first round of the upcoming draft.
The Penguins could potentially receive two top-ten picks in the 2025 NHL Draft.
Whether that happens depends on both how the Penguins and the New York Rangers do over this final week of the regular season.
A few wins from Seattle Kraken, Philadelphia Flyers, Buffalo Sabres and Anaheim Ducks would meanwhile give the Pens a better shot at moving up to the first or second overall pick in the May draft lottery.
As of Tuesday, the San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks and Nashville Predators have already clinched the top three spots heading into the draft lottery, according to Tankathon.
Here’s a look at the pre-lottery order heading into this final week of the regular season, per Tankathon.
4. Boston Bruins: 33-39-9, .463 point percentage
1 game remaining v. NJD
5. Seattle Kraken, 35-40-6, .469 PT%
1 game remaining v. LAK
6. Philadelphia Flyers, 33-37-10, .475 PT%
2 games remaining v. BUF, CBJ
7. Buffalo Sabres, 35-38-7, .481 PT%
2 games remaining v. TOR, PHI
8. Pittsburgh Penguins, 33-36-12, .481 PT%
1 game remaining v. WSH
9. Anaheim Ducks, 35-37-8, .488 PT%
2 games remaining v. WPG, MIN
10. New York Rangers, 38-36-7, .512 PT%
1 game remaining v. TBL
The Penguins could climb as high as No. 5 in the pre-lottery order if:
- Penguins lose to Capitals on Thursday
- Flyers win over Sabres on Tuesday or Blue Jackets on Thursday
- Kraken win over Kings on Tuesday
- Sabres win over Leafs on Tuesday or Flyers on Thursday
The Penguins could sink as low No. 9 in the pre-lottery order if:
- Penguins win over Capitals on Thursday
- Flyers lose to Sabres on Tuesday and Blue Jackets on Thursday
- Kraken lose to Kings on Tuesday
- Sabres lose to Leafs on Tuesday and Flyers on Thursday
- Ducks lose to Jets on Tuesday and Wild on Wednesday
Because no team can drop more than two spots after the lottery, the Penguins will at worst end up with pick No. 11.
The Pens will also get a shot— however slim— at the top two picks in the upcoming draft. It’s been a while since there was significant movement thanks to the lottery, but the Rangers did jump up from at least No. 8 to No. 1 when they won the Alexis Lafrenière lottery (the rules shifted in 2020 amid the bubble playoffs.)
Another draft pick to keep an eye on is the New York Rangers’ top-13 protected selection, which could go to the Penguins thanks to the return from the Marcus Pettersson trade.
The Rangers can decide to either keep the pick and guarantee the Penguins an unprotected 2026 first-rounder, or hand the pick over and keep their 2026 selection.
USA Today’s Vince Z. Mercogliano wrote Monday that he believes there’s a “decent chance” the Rangers send the Penguins this year’s pick in order to hang on to the 2026 first-rounder.
“People I’ve spoken with believe that will be a better draft and the Rangers won’t want to risk sacrificing an unprotected pick in it. But if the 2025 pick lands in the top 10, the temptation will be there to keep it,” Mercogliano wrote.
That means the Rangers’ home finale against the Lightning will be another game to keep an eye on this Thursday.
If the Rangers lose, and the Ducks win out, there is some potential the Blueshirts could climb as high as No. 9 before making the decision as to whether to hand the Pens the first-rounder. General manager Chris Drury has up to 48 hours before the start of the draft on June 25 to make his decision, per The Athletic’s Arthur Staple.