Teams will see their futures set by the luck of the lottery tonight
Today is the big day for the 16 teams in the NHL that did not make the playoffs this season. The NHL will conduct a draft lottery tonight at 7:00pm eastern. In a more exciting move, this year will be the first time the draw will be conducted live, in the past the NHL has revealed the cards after the fact. From the league:
Instead of watching a countdown from 16 to 1 after the lottery balls have been drawn behind the scenes, fans will watch on live TV as the lottery balls are drawn at NHL Network’s studio in Secaucus, New Jersey, on May 5 (7 p.m. ET; ESPN, Sportsnet, TVAS). It’s the first time in the 30-year-history of the NHL Draft Lottery that the drawing will be shown live in-studio.
Here’s the handy chart from Tankathon to show via graphic what could happen for the Penguins:
Pittsburgh has a 5.0% chance of winning the lottery and moving up to the first overall pick. The odds are similar (5.2%) that the Pens could win the second drawing and move up to the second pick in the first round. There’s a minute chance (0.2%) of moving up to the third spot.
The mathematical favorite is that Pittsburgh will stay in their draft slot of ninth and retain that pick. There’s also a decent chance (25.2%) that someone behind the Pens will win the lottery and bump them down to the 10th or even 11th pick.
A small side plot exists with the Rangers pick. New York put a clause in for top-13 protection when they traded the pick to Vancouver, the Canucks then flipped that pick to the Pens in the Marcus Pettersson trade. That pick can’t fall below 13th tonight, so the Rangers will have the ability to keep it. Per Kyle Dubas in a March press conference, NYR can let Pittsburgh know up until 48 hours before the draft if the Rangers want to kick this year’s pick to the Pens. If they don’t send it this year then Pittsburgh gets the Rangers’ 2026 first round pick regardless of where it ends up.
Considering that the Rangers hired Mike Sullivan and will be looking to have their 2026 first rounder be later than 10th/11th next season, all logic points to them keeping this year’s pick and conveying next year’s spot to Pittsburgh. The Pens have no say in the matter, they are in the passenger seat for whatever NYR decides to do.
Even though Pittsburgh is considered charmed for winning the 30-team draft lottery in 2005 for the rights to draft Sidney Crosby, the franchise hasn’t had much luck in the lottery outside of that year. The Pens picked first in 2003 to get Marc-Andre Fleury, but had to make a trade up on draft day to secure that selection. The Pens had the best odds in the 2004 draft lottery, but the Capitals won it and positioned themselves to select Alex Ovechkin. (The consolation prize that year of Evgeni Malkin didn’t leave anyone complaining). The Pens also failed to win in 2006, sticking in the second spot that allowed them to draft Jordan Staal.
Odds are better than 2:1 that the Pens will actually move down tonight instead of up, but the team should still be in position for their first standings-earned top-10 pick since that 2006 draft.