What does Kyle Dubas’s past draft choices say about what direction he might go in the future
Building off our own work from two years ago, let’s dig into what Kyle Dubas has done in the past via the draft.
Overall, the breakdown goes like this:
- Heavy on forwards early in the draft, two out of three first round picks have been forwards. Out of 10 first/second round picks, seven have been forwards. Often wingers.
- Four out of six total top-50 picks have been out of the WHL. The others have been one a piece from Russia and the OHL. Has used zero top-50 picks from the QMJHL, US Colleges/USHL, Finland, Sweden, Czechia, Slovakia.
- Hasn’t really messed with QMJHL or Swedish based players at all at any point in draft — only two out of 43 skaters drafted were from the Quebec league (one of them even being a Russian import player and not a native Quebecois). Similarly, has only one player drafted out of a Swedish league (which doesn’t count Swedish native Rasmus Sandin due to playing his draft year in the OHL).
- Chances are picks in the next tier from 59th – 100th are going to be European (just not Swedish). In seven career picks from the late second through the third round, four have been from Finland. One WHL, one OHL (who was a Russian import, at that) and one USHL product.
- Late in drafts we see a heavy emphasis on US born or at least US trained players from the NCAA/USHL ranks from rounds 4-7. Out of the 27 skaters Dubas has drafted during Rounds 4-7 over the years, 10 have been from NCAA/USHL, compared to four each from OHL, Russia and Finland, two a piece from the WHL and QMJHL and one from Sweden.
- Has never drafted a goalie in Rounds 1-3, has not drafted a goalie in his stint as Pittsburgh GM. In the seven drafts, Dubas has only drafted four goalies total.
- Lots of right handed defensemen, 11 of his 47 total draft picks (23%) have been RHD.
- More of a European haul (especially in Russia) than most other NHL teams in the modern era. 14/43 skaters drafted played in Europe, which is not inclusive of several others like Sandin, Filip Kral and Joona Vaisanen that were European natives playing junior/college hockey in North America.
- Despite a willingness to get a big guy like Matthew Knies, general forward profile of draftees trends towards smaller, higher-skilled type of players. Pittsburgh kid Ty Voit (fifth round pick in 2021) could be perfect example of that- blossomed into the OHL’s second-leading scorer in 2022-23 with 105 points, despite being listed at 5’9 and 151 pounds. Not all Toronto players are that small, but under Dubas they’ve definitely been looking for the “next Jake Guentzel” type who might be small on draft day but have high ceilings for the future. 2024 late-round pick Mac Swanson for Pittsburgh fits that mold as well.
- Generally speaking for the blueine, Toronto was compiling puck moving defensemen (Sandin, Durzi) with skating/IQ qualities over physical profiles. Also seen in Brunicke pick.
- Trading down to accumulate more picks has been common for Dubas with examples in 2022 (moving back in the first round to ditch Petr Mrazek’s bad contract and again dealing back in the third round), and again 2020 (when he traded back in the second round), 2018 (in the first round) and as an interim GM in 2015 Dubas traded down twice in the first round. Save for dealing a 2023-fourth rounder to get back into the fourth round in 2022, trading up hasn’t been a strategy often used, but he also has rarely been in position to have excess picks.
- More in tune with league buzz than draft rankings. Dubas wanted Chase Pietila (overage player, ranked just 108th among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting) but knew Toronto/Tampa were likely to pick Pietila during a long period that Pittsburgh didn’t have a draft pick. Took Pietila 111th overall, high by ranking standards, in order to insure he cut in front of other teams to get desired player. Certainly has a list/ranking that can vary from the industry standard and doesn’t look afraid to draft lower ranked players high. (See also recognizing a rising top prospect in Harrison Brunicke, the 52nd among North American skater in the NHL Central Scouting’s final rankings, and snatching him up with the 44th overall selection, seen as a major reach on draft day but not too much longer when Brunicke made a serious run at making the NHL roster as an 18-year old in his first pro training camp).
Going by type and history, here’s a prediction of what Dubas has typically done in the past. We’ll be as descriptive and predictive as possible in places where it’s also accurate and true to type. This will be an interesting list to come back to and see how closely it’s able to predict Dubas’s 2025 draft future based strictly on his previous tendencies and patterns that have developed with the current picks where the Pens are slated to make choices.
- 11th overall pick: No absolute consensus but leaning towards OHL or WHL player, likely being a forward
- 59: Either a winger or right shot defender from the OHL or Finland
- 73: OHL or WHL center, off-chance for a Finnish player
- 84: Finnish left shot defender or WHL center
- 85: Finnish left shot defender or WHL center
- 105: NCAA/USHL forward or NCAA/USHL right shot defender
- 130: Russian forward
- 148: Wildcard pick that goes off profile; possibly Swedish, or on a hunch this could be the spot for picking a goalie
- 169: Overage player who is probably a European in the NCAA
- 201: Very small high skill NCAA/USHL player with tiny boom, large bust potential
Just as interesting will be seeing if Dubas breaks the mold by going in a new direction. There’s no rule that says he has to be loyal and continue to make the decisions this draft that he’s done in the past. Analyzing his picks does show some clear patterns but circumstances can easily force him to get out of his typical lane if it looks like something different or unusual has developed this year when the Pens are up to pick. Predicting the draft is, of course, an impossibility but it will be interesting to see if Dubas ends up going off what he’s shown in the past or writes in some different types of profiles from previous drafts.