Who will move on and who will go home out West?
The dust has settled on the first round, and I went 5-3 in the first round, which isn’t that great. Hopefully you did better than PK Subban’s 2-6 and that’s something to hang your hat on. We move onto the next round and try to prognosticate the next round in the west.
Central Division Final: Dallas Stars vs. Winnipeg Jets
In my first round preview, I tried to do Connor Hellebuyck a favor and dismiss most of his struggles in the playoffs due to very real quality of competition factors he ran into these past few years. It’s impossible to give him a pass any longer after watching Hellebuyck struggle mightily in the first round against St. Louis.
Which goes to show why hockey is so unpredictable. Hellebuyck is a legitimate MVP candidate and Vezina shoo-in for his work in the regular season. (Then again, at 62 starts and 63 games [the latter tied for most in the league this season]) maybe the Jets leaned too hard on a goalie that also was Team USA’s 4 Nations focal point. Regardless of the how or why that the Jets have a shaky goalie, amazingly enough right now we’re in a spot where what seemed like a sure thing is completely out the window.
On the other side of the equation, the Dallas Stars just out-lasted a quality Colorado team without their best defenseman (Miro Heiskanen) and one of their best forwards (Jason Robertson) playing a single game. Both are inching closer and closer to returning to the lineup. The Stars’ decision to add Mikko Rantanen was a bold, aggressive stroke of genius — the power forward channeled his early ‘90s Kevin Stevens to almost single-handedly will a team to a series victory on his Game 7 third period hat trick that took his new team above his old team.
Due to Dallas peaking and possibly getting reinforcements, plus the Jets just barely surviving, this one seems like it’s easy for the picking. The Jets are looking as shaky as can be and going the other way on injuries (Josh Morrissey left Game 7 with a status unknown-to-us injury, and Mark Scheifele missed Game 7). This series might be a surgical dismantling that doesn’t take very long..
Prediction: Stars in 5
Pacific Division Final: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers
I was moderately surprised that some models like the Oilers more than the Golden Knights, even with Edmonton already announcing that star defenseman Mattias Ekholm will be out for another series.
The Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl power is that strong, but more than that the depth of the Oil came through against the LA Kings. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor Brown and Zach Hyman each recorded five points in the six games. Down a rung even Corey Perry, Evander Kane and Mattias Janmark chipped in two goals a piece in the first round. Edmonton becomes inevitable when all of those players are chipping in addition to the (nearly) two points per game that Mc-Drai will both put up.
Vegas had some issues of their own in dispatching Minnesota with a little more difficulty than I foresaw. The Golden Knights were the opposite of the Oilers in the first round, in the area that their depth players did not step it up. Vegas was driven by Tomas Hertl, Jack Eichel and Mark Stone. The other nine forwards they used only combined for eight goals and 18 points in 54 total man-games in the first round. Which side sees their non-stars come through the most might turn into a series key, and based on the opening round, you might have to have more faith in the Oilers’ crew keeping it going than how the Knights players performed.
The answer to how much Vegas’ depth might help comes down to how much damage they can do on Calvin Pickard.
Pickard isn’t carrying the Oilers (his save percentage and GSAA are unimpressive) but all he has to do is keep it out of the proverbial ditch and his teammates will take care of the rest. Stuart Skinner couldn’t do that in round one, and fortunately was so outrageously bad (.810 save%, -5.7 GSAA in under two games played) that it made it easy to try Pickard. He couldn’t do any worse, and in fact did a lot better. But how long will that hold up? Pickard isn’t exactly Patrick Roy out there and goaltending issues could seemingly unravel at any second.
In my Pensburgh bracket I chose this second round matchup and picked Vegas to win. As much as I would like to remain Loyal to the Oil, begrudgingly I’ll keep to the original plan that the Knights will get it together and move onto the Conference Final.
Prediction: Golden Knights in 6