There’s no games but a lot going on for the Pens
Well, the first checklist got balled up and thrown in the trash a few days after it was published, so let’s check in.
Step 1: Any (unplanned) staffing changes?
The Penguins plan on retaining their coaching staff, according to general manager Kyle Dubas at his end of season press conference. That’s a reversal from last season when the team moved on from assistant Todd Reirden and replaced him with David Quinn.
Will the early summer have any surprises as far as unplanned changes?
Turns out, it had a lot of surprises! Kyle Dubas reversed course and opted to end the Mike Sullivan era. After several weeks, Dan Muse was installed as the new coach.
And just like that the David Quinn revitalized power play stint ends too, with Mike Vellucci and Ty Hennes also moving on from behind the Penguin bench.
There’s still a few more boxes to check here by rounding out the rest of the coaching staff.
Step 2: Lottery draft
The exact date hasn’t been firmed up yet but reportedly is either on May 5th or 6th, according to TSN.
The Penguins will need Craig Patrick’s lucky four-leaf clover for what will be the first draft lottery that they’ve had a shot at winning the first overall pick since 2006. Pittsburgh only has a 5.0% chance of winning the first overall pick (and a 5.2% chance of winning the second overall pick). There’s a much better chance of 23.5% that Pittsburgh gets leaped by another team and sends the Pens to a 10th overall selection, but the odds on favorite is for Pittsburgh to hang tight at the 9th draft selection with a 64.4% probability.
The 1.7% chance that Pittsburgh would get bumped down to the 11th overall pick was such an out-of-the-way possibility that it wasn’t written about. Welp! Bad luck there for the Pens (and several other lower end teams not named NYI and Utah) to see their draft spots fall.
Step 3: Wait to hear from New York about the extra first round pick
According to Dubas after the trade deadline, the Rangers have up until 48 hours before the draft to let Pittsburgh know if New York will elect to keep their first round pick this year or send it to the Pens. If NYR keeps the pick this time around then Pittsburgh gets the Rangers’ 2026 first rounder next season with no protection.
As of now, no one still knows what the Rangers will do with the 12th overall pick. Conjecture and speculation is all over the map at times in opposite directions.
In a little nugget that may mean something — or may mean nothing! — Corey Pronman put a line in his recent mock draft that he “heard some interest [from NYR] in Aitcheson as well if he were available, which there is a decent chance he will be”. That would align with the logical stance that NYR would opt to use their pick at 12 this year, try and make the playoffs and send Pittsburgh a worse 2026 first round pick, but it’s all speculative at this moment.
We’ll find out for sure a week from today with the deadline of the condition for the Rangers to make their intentions known, so stay tuned..
Step 4: Ongoing playoffs doesn’t mean a trade freeze
Major trade dominoes fell within the goalie market last summer during the Stanley Cup Final. Calgary sent Jacob Markstrom to New Jersey, Washington traded Darcy Kuemper to Los Angeles and Boston sent Linus Ullmark to Ottawa all before the final whistle of the 2023-24 season. Not a netminder but Ryan McDonagh was dealt back to Tampa in May, and there was another meaningful trade of draft picks worked out between Chicago and the Islanders in the same month.
Unlike this time last year, there have not been any major transactions while the NHL playoffs have been going on (Boston picking up Victor Soderstrom doesn’t exactly count in that regard). Makes for a dull June off the ice and sets up for a lot going on in the future.
With that old business out of the way, here’s what is on the agenda for the Penguins in the near future.
Step 5: Name assistant coaches
It’ll be interesting to see the first staff that Muse gets together for the upcoming season. Will there be some coaches from his past that know him and his style? Maybe a veteran, older voice and presence to join the first time coach? This also looks wide open.
Step 6: Decisions on internal free agents
This has been ongoing with recent re-signings of Boko Imama and Joona Koppanen in recent days. Pittsburgh still has Matt Nieto, Matt Grzelcyk, Nate Clurman, Marc Johnstone, Jimmy Huntington, Colton Poolman and Mattias Laferriere on their unrestricted list.
Some decisions have been made with Vasily Ponomarev, Mac Hollowell and Filip Kral all opting to sign with European teams. The Pens could still make a qualifying offer to Ponomarev to retain his NHL rights.
Step 6b: Qualifying offer decisions on restricted free agents
Conor Timmins, Philip Tomasino, Ponomarev, Connor Dewar. P.O Joseph and Emil Bemstrom are on the list in a quick placement of most to least likely to see qualifying offers. Raivis Ansons has been downgraded to an AHL contract for next season with Wilkes. All of these players have arbitration rights but given that the Pens have boatloads of cap space — and almost no players actually remain unsigned long enough to get to and through an arbitration hearing — the main question revolves around whether the club wants to keep these players more than being scared off by the prospects of seeing them secure slightly more money than a typical FA negotiation.
Step 7: the draft
The first round is Friday June 27, the Pens pick 11th (and possibly 12th, NYR dependent). Rounds 2-7 are Saturday June 28th.
The Pens are currently scheduled to have the following picks:
- Round 2: 59th overall
- Round 3: 73, 84, 85
- Round 4: 105
- Round 5: 130, 148
- Round 6: 169
- Round 7: 201
Step 8: July 1 madness
Pittsburgh figures not to be a player involved in going after key free agents that will command a large salary and term commitment, but that doesn’t mean that silly season won’t be active. Bryan Rust’s no movement clause ends on July 1, the same day that Erik Karlsson is scheduled to receive a $5 million signing bonus. Both become bigger trade possibilities after that point, not to mention any movement possibilities for players like Rickard Rakell, Noel Acciari and Alex Nedeljkovic that may receive interest from other clubs in trade talks.