The Pirates haven’t finished above .500 since 2018.
Here we go. New year, new expectations, new belief in how the Pirates can perform in 2024. Following a 14-win improvement a season ago, the Bucs have a chance to do damage in the National League.
The Pittsburgh Pirates begin the MLB regular season Thursday in Miami. The bullpen is deep, the lineup is the best since GM Ben Cherington and manager Derek Shelton took over entering 2020. Depth will be tested, and questions remain at first base and the starting rotation.
Ben Verlander of Fox Sports placed Pittsburgh 4th in the NL Central with an 81-81 record, and the Cincinnati Reds (88-74) and Chicago Cubs (86-76) making the playoffs. MLB.com writers came together to pick Chicago to represent the division in the playoffs. Six of CBS Sports’ MLB writers have the Bucs finishing last, or second-to-last. Milwaukee won the division with 92 wins but lost manager Craig Counsell to the rival Cubs and was considered in the basement of the NL Central.
So why should we believe?
Mitch Keller takes the hill for a second-consecutive year for game 1 of 162, looking to build off an All-Star campaign. He’ll be a critical part of the pitching staff, anything else would be an understatement. The rotation goes as Keller goes, especially fresh off a five-year, $77 million contract.
Cherington and Shelton both stated plublicly this offseason that it’s time to win. They’ve said it, but actions speak louder than words. The Pirates made a point by slotting rookie right-hander Jared Jones in the starting rotation to make his MLB debut on Saturday and being on the Opening Day roster.
I think Oneil Cruz is prime for a breakout. 31 home runs and 30 steals. The sky’s the limit on his potential. The Bucs averaged 3.65 runs per game in 2022. Last season, Andy Haines’ offense was 22nd in baseball at 4.27. That must improve. Ke’Bryan Hayes took a significant step at the plate and is driving the baseball to all parts of the field. His end-of-season success carried over to spring training with three homers, nine RBIs, and a .412 batting average. Bryan Reynolds is the team’s most consistent hitter. Jack Suwinski has 30-20 potential no one talks about. The 25-year-old lefty hit 26 homers and stole 13 bags in 144 games manning center field last season and will shift to an outfield corner with the addition of Gold Glove winner Michael A. Taylor. Andrew McCutchen still has power, speed, and bat speed left in his tank.
The bullpen is lights out. They need to get healthy, but a ‘pen of David Bednar (2x All-Star), Aroldis Chapman (7x All-Star), Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski, Ryan Borucki and others will make the Pirates a top five bullpen in baseball, channeling the days of ‘The Shark Tank.’
This season will come down to three things: Is Oneil Cruz the star we all believe he will become? When does Paul Skenes debut and how impactful will he be? Does Derek Shelton push the right buttons for the team to deliver a winning record for the first time in six seasons?
Skenes is the main attraction drawing attention to the Pirates, as he should be. Skenes may bring the most buzz to PNC Park of any player to ever debut for the Pirates.
Skenes, Cruz, and Henry Davis are three budding stars with loads of potential… but seeing is believing. If we see it this season, meaningful baseball will be played in September at PNC Park for the first time this decade.
Specifically in the NL Central, I don’t think the division has a bonified favorite to come out on top.
Milwaukee traded Corbin Burnes in the surprise of the winter, St. Louis finished below the Pirates in the standings for the first time since 1999. The Cubs are a question mark, but re-signed Cody Bellinger and have a few solid starters. The Reds might be the most talented team in the division.
The vibe around the 2024 Pirates is different. There’s excitement, with good reason.
Mitch Keller is the third key player in three years to sign a long-term extension. Keller, Hayes, and Reynolds have committed to the Pirates for the prime of their careers. McCutchen still performs at a productive level at the plate and made a significant leadership difference in the clubhouse. Leadership can be overstated, but McCutchen is still a solid contributor at the dish. It’s also a make-or-break season for Derek Shelton and Ben Cherington to prove the rebuild is over. If not, the organization is in as bad a place as many want to believe.
I’m worried they won’t promote Skenes quick enough, and/or the failure to add an impactful starting pitcher in the offseason, plus if Shelton will make the right decisions late in games with bullpen management and not deploying a pinch hitter when someone like Austin Hedges comes to the plate.
They’re not one of the top five teams in the NL, but could a late-season run to the Wild Card be a possibility?
A few years ago, I thought this could be the breakout season with prospects like Davis, Mlodzinski, Endy Rodriguez (before injury), Liover Peguero, and Quinn Priester in their first full seasons. They need another starting pitcher. An IMPACTFUL starter. Could Jones be that pitcher? Maybe I’m naïve to think they’ll sign or trade for one. I predicted 75 wins last season. They won 76. Optimistic? I’m hopeful. 80-82 wins is more realistic, but what the hell. Bring back Buctober.
Record prediction: 85-77 (2nd NL Central; 3rd NL Wild Card)
Authors Note: Portions of this story were a part of Austin’s contribution to Bucs Dugout’s 2024 staff picks.