Some bold, others not so much.
When Opening Day arrives, you have to do something extra special to celebrate. That’s why staff members Jake Slebodnick and Connor Williams teamed up to bring you 10 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions for 2024.
Listen to Jake’s on a special edition of Talk the Plank, then read Connor’s predictions below!
Jake’s predictions (LISTEN):
Connor’s predictions:
Baseball is incredibly hard to predict, I don’t really know why so many people try. So naturally, I’m trying my hand at it. Here are 5 predictions for the 143rd season of the Pittsburgh baseball team.
Pirates go 84-78, finish second in the division and earn the 3rd and final wildcard spot by the skin of their teeth in a race that comes down to the wire
Before you say ‘Wait, but didn’t you say in the staff predictions article that they would finish 5th?’ yep, I said they would go 77-85 and finish last. Hey, I’m allowed to change my mind, aren’t I?
I’ve talked myself into this so hear me out here – I was overestimating the rest of the division.
How much better on paper can you confidently say the teams outside of Chicago are than the Pirates at the present moment? Position for position, how much better are the Reds, the Brewers or the Cardinals? Heck, even how you see the Cubs depends heavily on how you expect Shota Imanaga and Cody Bellinger to perform.
I see no clear reason why the Pirates definitively can’t go toe-to-toe with any of them. Especially with the Reds and Cardinals limping into the season down multiple important regulars each.
They play each team in the division 13 times, 52 total games. Just a shade over 32 percent of the season. If they can just avoid getting totally slaughtered by the Cubs like they did last year and hold their own versus the rest of the division, there’s a real path to being above .500.
I’ve seen the light, hopefully I won’t regret it.
Andrew McCutchen doesn’t save his 300th homerun for the home opener on April 5th
The first five projected starters the Pirates will go up against this season will be left-handed. McCutchen has a career .925 OPS against LHP and 95 of his 299 career homers come against southpaws. His first of the season and 300th of his career won’t wait for the Pirates first homestand.
I’ll even spice this one up a little, just for fun. He’ll hit it off of Saturday’s projected starter for Miami, Ryan Weathers, in the top of the third inning with a 1-1 count.
Bryan Reynolds earns his second all-star selection
Reynolds saw a large number of important peripheral stats improve in 2023, including exit velo, barrels and chase rates, but saw his production decline slightly. He underperformed his xBA of .280 by .017 and his xSLG of .490 by .030.
The 2024 Pirates have a deeper lineup than they have since Reynolds made his debut in 2019, with better protection behind him than he’s ever had, better luck and a full healthy season, Reynolds will be in Arlington on Tuesday, July 16 for the All-Star game.
Rowdy Tellez disappoints, Pirates go shopping at the deadline for a 1B bat, acquire Josh Bell from the Marlins.
I don’t quite see it working out with Rowdy Tellez. He is one year removed from a 2022 campaign where he hit 35 homeruns with a wRC+ of 110, but he was dreadful in 2023. Hitting .215/.291/.376 with a wRC+ of 78 in 106 games with the Brewers.
In fairness to Tellez, he was dealing with injuries last year, but his 2022 season was the only full season in his career that he’s hit at that level. His career fWAR of 0.0 over parts of six different seasons doesn’t inspire much confidence either.
A 2024 Marlins team that didn’t do much this past offseason instead chose to rely on a rotation more than capable of competing. Unfortunately, they’re coming into the season after losing three of their top four starters in camp to a couple of alarming injuries and they’ll need every bit of pitching they can get to make up for an offense that’s only just OK at best.
I have them missing out on the playoffs and being sellers at the deadline where a big priority for the Marlins should they be out of contention would be to shed the salary of players on expiring deals for whatever they can get.
Being paid $16.5 million and a free agent at the end of the year, Josh Bell fits this description. Depending on how he’s performing you may be able to get him essentially for nothing as long as you’re willing to pay for two months of him, the money is a bit steep for a player with his flaws.
He’s basically the same incredibly streaky switch-hitter with severe issues throwing the ball around the infield that you remember from his previous stint in Pittsburgh. He can be the heart of your offense for weeks at a time before becoming a black hole in your lineup for a month.
The main difference being contrary to his time in Pittsburgh, these days he’s actually better as a right-handed hitter than he is as a lefty.
Is this the best fit, or even a good fit? Absolutely not. Are there multitudes of variables at play here that would need to line up to make this happen? Totally.
Here’s the deal though, with these kinds of predictions, I would rather be wildly wrong predicting something amusing than something boring and likely to be equally wrong. I might as well have some fun with this and go out on a limb.
I’ll eat a ‘Renegade Hot Dog’ at the home opener, and I will never ever forgive myself.
For the uninformed,
RENEGADE HOT DOG: A foot-long hotdog topped with mini pierogies, pot roast, caramelized onions and pickles is making its debut at PNC Park this season. https://t.co/nA9ipy5LQY
— KDKA (@KDKA) March 25, 2024
A foot-long hot dog, with roast beef, caramelized onions, pickles and mini pierogies called the ‘Renegade’ will grace the concession stands at PNC park this season. The latest in a seemingly endless line of edible ballpark monstrosities designed to prey on the morbidly curious.
I’ll be there at the home opener, and I predict that I’ll be eating one. I hope I can live to tell the tale.