The signing of pitcher Andrew Heaney for the Pittsburgh Pirates rotation will have a domino effect on several starting candidates. The addition of Heaney came as a bit of a shock, as Pirates general manager Ben Cherington had said he was “not on the doorstep” of any major moves and this one didn’t seem to address the team’s three most pressing needs, which are hitting, hitting, and more hitting. If this move didn’t come from the doorstep, it certainly came out of left field.
How Andrew Heaney Affects the Pirates Rotation
Heaney, a 33-year-old left-hander, previously pitched for the Miami Marlins (2014), Los Angeles Angels (2015-21), New York Yankees (2021), Los Angeles Dodgers (2022), and Texas Rangers (2023-24). Like last year’s Pirates additions Aroldis Chapman and Martín Pérez, Heaney earned a World Series ring with Texas in 2023. Lifetime, he’s 51-62 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.265 WHIP. Last year, his record was an uninspiring 5-14 while posting a 4.28 ERA and 1.250 WHIP.
Cherington stated that, as in the case of recent addition Tommy Pham, he had long coveted Heaney for the Pirates. It was only now that the parties could find a fit. It raises the question of why it took so long to bring either player into the fold and why these love affairs merely resulted in one-year contracts.
With the above said, some statistical indicators tend to show what may have attracted the Pirates to Heaney. Featuring a four-seam fastball half the time, he’s had six seasons with double-digit strikeouts per nine innings. More intriguing is his flyball percentage. In the last four seasons, his lowest flyball percentage was 30.6 percent last year, well above the major league average. Pitching to right-handed-dominated lineups in PNC Park with its deep, forgiving left and center fields should help turn more of those flyballs into outs. Since 2015, he’s pitched for four teams whose home parks ranked in the top seven easiest within which to hit home runs in 2024, according to Statcast. PNC Park is 27th on that list.
Other Starting Pitching Candidates
The rotation is headed by Paul Skenes, last year’s National League Rookie of the Year, and the Pirates’ $70-million man, Mitch Keller. Last year’s other rookie sensation, Jared Jones, and left-hander Bailey Falter seem assured spots. Johan Oviedo, who sat out 2024 with an injury after making 32 starts in 2023, is eyeing a midseason return. Prospects Bubba Chandler, Tom Harrington, Braxton Ashcraft, and perhaps Anthony Solometo are projected for 2025 arrivals in the majors.
Two relief pitchers, Carmen Mlodzinski and free agent addition Caleb Ferguson, are being stretched out in spring training. Mlodzinski expressed a desire to become a starter during last year’s exit interview with the brass. The rationale for turning either into starters escapes one. Mlodzinski was an effective reliever in 2023, when he had a 2.25 ERA and emerged as a seventh-inning specialist. In Ferguson’s case, it may have been something Cherington had to promise to snag the left-hander. Mlodzinski and Ferguson each pitched two innings in his first spring training appearance.
Carmen Mlodzinski said he is building volume to be a starter this spring. Said there were conversations about him transitioning into a starter role at the end of last season. Said he’s still open to being used in any role, but his goal is to be a starting pitcher.
— Noah Hiles (@_NoahHiles) February 22, 2025
Never Enough
Cherington operates under the theory that no team can ever have enough pitching depth. Hence the addition of Heaney to the Pirates. It’s not a bad way to operate. Last year, Jones and Marco Gonzales missed significant time while on the injured list. Gonzales, a free agent pickup who was counted on to stabilize the rotation, pitched in only seven games. In 2024, the Pirates used 32 pitchers, including the always-willing Rowdy Tellez, in total.
So, as we look at the Pirates’ starting pitching candidates, it’s too early to project who’s in and who’s out. Often the issue resolves itself with injuries, trades, or poor spring training performances.
Intriguing Candidates
This writer’s dark horse pick to make the team out of spring training, in much the same fashion as did Jones last year, has been Chandler. Chandler is the Pirates’ top prospect. Since abandoning plans to become a two-way player, he’s made great strides pitching. His fastball has been described as “electric” with “late life,” sitting in the mid-to-upper 90s and generating swing-and-miss. He mixes in a slider, which is often his “out” pitch, a curveball, and a changeup. With Double-A Altoona last year, he was 6-7 with a 3.70 ERA and, more impressively, a 1.008 WHIP and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A Indianapolis, where he was 4-0 with a 1.83 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, and 12.4 strikeouts per nine in seven starts.
Mlodzinski in the starters’ mix makes things further interesting. With Mlodzinski having been a successful short reliever, one might get the impression that he’s the proverbial fastballer. One would be wrong. Mlodzinski has a four-pitch mix that includes the four-seamer, slider, cutter, and sweeper. The four-seamer saw the most usage in 2024 at 40 percent. He also has a seldom-used changeup and sinker in his toolbelt. He may not need time in Indianapolis to get acclimated as a starter. Indeed, he made 22 starts at Altoona as recently as 2022.
Too Early to Project, But We’re Doing It Anyway
With the Pirates now having Heaney under contract, the door to either Chandler or Mlodzinski making the rotation appears to be closed. Then again, maybe not.
The gutsy Jones became a fan favorite from the start, when he struck out 10 Miami Marlins in his major league debut. After 13 starts, he was just 4-5, but with a 3.27 ERA while holding opponents to a .219/.270/.407 slash line. However, from June 15 on, which included missing most of July and August while on the IL, his ERA was 5.51, although his 4.37 FIP indicates he may have been victimized by some combination of poor support and bad luck.
Similarly, Falter faltered toward the end. After a disastrous first start in Miami, he gave up just 17 runs in his next 10 games. Unfortunately, this was followed by 17 games over which he had a 5.42 ERA, although, like Jones, with a significantly lower FIP at 4.10.
Thus, it doesn’t seem too far-fetched that Jones and/or Falter could step aside for another starter. Jones, in particular, has minor league options remaining. Struggles in the spring, similar to what he experienced at the end of the last season, may convince the Pirates brass that more time in the minors may be needed. It may not be as easy to cast aside Falter, who has no options remaining. He’d have to be traded, designated for assignment, or relegated to a bullpen role.
The Last Word
Barring injuries and more transactions, odds are that the Pirates will begin the season with a rotation of Skenes, Jones, Keller, Falter, and Heaney, in whatever order. Switching Chandler for Jones or Falter is easy to imagine if Chandler has a spring that forces their hand. Certainly, the Pirates are dead serious about Mlodzinski as a starter. It’s hard to find room for him in the rotation, however, unless he, too, has a great spring. Far less easy to imagine is Ferguson in the rotation, given what the Pirates have already and the need for left-handers out of the bullpen.
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