Rumors are hot that Mitch Keller will be elsewhere by July 31. Where could he go, and what is his value?
Pirates starting RHP Mitch Keller has certainly blossomed into a reliable arm since being drafted in the second round of the 2014 MLB draft and becoming a high-end prospect. Keller earned a long-term contract in February of last year from an organization that rarely gives out multi-year deals to anyone. But now, Keller seems to be closer and closer to being on his way out the door as the MLB Trade Deadline looms.
The Pirates, once again due to a lack of success and a consistently frugal payroll, find themselves in a situation where keeping Keller for a total of $54.5 million (the majority of the money he’s owed from the extension the team gave him) over the next three years is not as valuable as trading him in a seller’s market and dumping salary that should be used on legitimately improving offensively throughout the entire organization and most importantly on the big league roster. Adding onto this point, the Pirates need to make room in the immediate future for up-and-coming young starting pitchers like Bubba Chandler and Hunter Barco, and most immediately Braxton Ashcraft, who looks ready to fit into the rotation after continuing to impress in his first big league stint in long relief out of the bullpen. Not to mention that they will need to fit Jared Jones back into the fold once he comes back in the second half of next year.
It’s probably safe to say that the Pirates’ rotation depth will be ok without Keller. The question of the organization actually making legitimate strides to be better by trading Keller is one that fans can rightfully be pessimistic about for obvious reasons, but that’s another story for another day. Right now, let’s take a look at two current trade rumors for Keller and what the Pirates’ ideal return should be.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have engaged in talks about Mitch Keller, according to Bob Nightengale. However, as Chicago is a division rival, Ben Cherington should increase his asking price significantly when negotiating with the Cubs. The following trade scenario is one of the few plausible ways Keller should ever be dealt to this division rival.
Cubs: RHP Mitch Keller
Pirates: C/1B Moises Ballesteros (CHC #2 prospect, #53 in the top 100), RHP Jack Neely (CHC #14 prospect)
Ballesteros, despite his 5’8” chunky frame, has one of the best hit tools of any left-handed hitter in the minor leagues, which is why he climbed to his major league debut in May at only 21 years old. The Cubs probably view him as the catcher of the future, although his weight and defensive issues behind the plate are concerning.
From Cherington’s perspective, he shouldn’t be worried about whether he can be a great defender right away. Henry Davis, despite his continued horrific struggles offensively, has become such a strong backstop this season. Ballesteros is one of the few prospects out there that the Pirates could have confidence in potentially penciling in the lineup in 2026 and making an immediate impact, whether that’s as a DH or catcher (with Joey Bart fading and most likely gone at the end of the month, and Endy Rodriguez hurt once again, the Pirates have no offensive production in sight from that position in the future).
Neely, 25 and standing 6’8”, is currently a project with massive potential to make an impact soon if he can find his old form. He has one of the nastiest sliders of any reliever in the Minor Leagues and a mid-to-upper 90s fastball, and had been previously striking out hitters at an extremely high rate. But after being traded to the Cubs from the Yankees as part of the Mark Leiter Jr. deal at last year’s trade deadline, things have gone south.
He posted a 9.00 ERA in his first call-up to the big leagues in 2024 with Chicago and a 6.91 ERA in 24 games with Triple-A Iowa this year. He has lost his command in 2025, as evidenced by the 25 walks he has allowed. Neely may be at a crossroads in his career, a boom or bust, but this would be worth the risk for the Pirates in this deal if they can acquire a hitter like Ballesteros in return.
New York Mets
Reports from The Athletic’s Jim Bowden and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Noah Hiles have the Mets interested in Keller, and they are certainly a team that will be desperate for starting pitching, with how many injuries their rotation has had.
Mets: RHP Mitch Keller
Pirates: IF Ronny Mauricio, 1B/OF Ryan Clifford (NYM #6 prospect)
Mauricio, 24 and standing 6’4”, has been floated in online circles as a possible return for Keller if he were to go to the Mets, although there are no official reports of that. After reviewing as many possibilities as I could, he does make the most sense if the Pirates want an immediate piece in their lineup.
The Mets have a crowded infield, and it’s hard to see them giving up on former top prospects Luisangel Acuna and Brett Baty in a trade. Mauricio can play shortstop, which will be a hole once Isiah Kiner-Falefa is gone, and third base, which may also become a hole if Ke’Bryan Hayes is gone at the deadline or this offseason. He also has extensive experience at second base and has had a taste of playing corner outfield in the minor leagues. The switch-hitter has passed all the hitting tests in the minor leagues, crushing it in Double-A and Triple-A over the previous two seasons, and continues to show power in 29 games with the Mets this year.
The lefty-hitting Clifford is only 21 years old and continues to showcase great power in Double-A Binghamton in his third full professional season. He hit 18 home runs in 98 games for the Rumble Ponies last season and has 17 in 84 games thus far this year. His slash line is eerily similar to last season as well: .231/.465/.814 with a .349 on-base percentage. Clifford needs to improve his average and strikeout rate, but if he can continue to slug consistently like he has, he’s going to keep working his way up the ranks quickly.