Could we see multiple wide receivers on the move during Round 1 of the draft?
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown received a record-setting contract extension Wednesday — a four-year, $120.01 million extension to become the highest-paid wide receiver in NFL history. His extension comes just over a week after the Philadelphia Eagles agreed to a three-year, $75 million contract extension with former first-round receiver DeVonta Smith.
There are two more receivers that have made it known they’re looking for new deals ahead of the season, including San Francisco 49ers wideout Brandon Aiyuk and AFC North rival, Tee Higgins of the Cincinnati Bengals. What does St. Brown’s contract mean for Aiyuk and Higgins, and how could it affect the Steelers in their quest to line up talent opposite George Pickens in 2024?
How Amon-Ra St. Brown’s contract could provide the blueprint for Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins and others
Well, in the broad scope of things, it means we can certainly expect big-time paydays in the very near future for these young wideouts. Their looming paydays also mean that their respective teams will be forced to make a business decision. If St. Brown’s contract provides agents the blueprint for negotiating the extensions of other up-and-coming stars at the position, the 49ers and Bengals will each be forced to assess their cap situation in the coming seasons and make a decision; can they afford to take on such a significant contract?
Heading into Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft, pre-Aiyuk extension, they’re projected to be just over $34.808 million over the cap in the 2025 season with 38 players under contract (second-least available cap space in NFL, only behind the Saints). In 2026, things look a little better, with the 49ers projected with $60.49 million in effective cap space, though that’s the seventh-lowest projected cap availability among the 32 NFL teams. Still, all of this comes with the caveat that they’re also soon set to (probably) pay their young star quarterback, Brock Purdy.
The Bengals find themselves in a much better position overall (for now), with $48.1 million in projected effective cap space in 2025 and $153.1 million in 2026 (compared to the 49ers at -$34.808 million and $60.49 million, respectively). Still, their priority is an extension for their former No. 5 overall pick in the 2021 draft, wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase
— a cornerstone of the franchise. Suddenly, the idea of paying two players “WR1 money” makes their long-term financial outlook appear a bit more grim.
That’s the thing about accumulating talent in the NFL. Sooner or later, you’ll have to pay them. All of them. And that’s why a draft night trade could be in the works. Though a trade between the Steelers and Bengals would never happen, given their division rivalry, fans can enjoy the fact that a very talented wide receiver will be leaving the division while hanging onto the potential of Aiyuk wearing black and gold… at least for now.
The good thing about the timing of these deals is that it provides Steelers GM Omar Khan with a reasonable projection of their own cap situation in the coming years, should they take on a trade-and-extension for Aiyuk.
You can read a full breakdown on the St. Brown’s extension with year-by-year breakdowns with our Lions sister site, Pride of Detroit. But here’s their TL;DR recap on the deal:
Like many contracts, St. Brown’s deal is heavily backloaded. For the next two years, St. Brown’s cap hit is extremely reasonable. His $4.86 cap hit in 2024 currently ranks 45th among receivers, and the jump to $13.9 million next year ranks 20th.
But then his salary takes a massive jump to $27.5 million in 2026, making him the fourth-highest costing receiver in 2026 ($33.1M), and the most expensive receiver in 2027 ($29M) and 2028 ($41M).
However, like many contracts, that final year looks like a dummy type of contract. With very little guaranteed money left on the books, it’s extremely likely that in 2028—when St. Brown is 29 years old—he’ll either be cut, restructured, or be given an entirely new deal.
It’s a big price tag to stomach, but from Day 1, Aiyuk would become a cornerstone, franchise player as opposed to gambling on talent (once again) in the 2024 NFL Draft, which is always a risk, even if the Steelers have a pretty good eye for value at the position in the later rounds.
The Steelers rank inside the top eight for most projected cap space in the 2025, 2026 and 2027 seasons. Frugality in offensive spending only works if you’re actually forcing production on offense despite your frugality, and their personnel in recent seasons hasn’t gotten it done.
Per PFF, among NFL teams in the regular season dating back to 2021, the Steelers have ranked…
- 28th with 4.7 yards per play
- 29th with 552 offensive points scored
- 26th with a 32.6% scoring drive percentage
- 29th with a 15.8% touchdown drive percentage
- 28th in successful play percentage (32.3%)
- 21st in EPA per play (-0.041)
Do it, Omar.